Wane 15

For anything related to Indiana's second-largest city.

2010.10.16 02:08 lilacattak For anything related to Indiana's second-largest city.

If you live in Fort Wayne, plan to move or visit, or just want to keep tabs on the city you used to call home: all are welcome here!
[link]


2023.06.08 01:45 jx_melon Anyone who is working in Texas please let me know how you survived in this summer weather.

Anyone who is working in Texas please let me know how you survived in this summer weather.
My first summer working in amazon. Let me know your tips and tricks.
submitted by jx_melon to AmazonDSPDrivers [link] [comments]


2023.06.08 00:06 mountainextension Don't get discouraged by DRS 'slowing down'. Consider the possibility they've inflated our DRS numbers from the beginning, and have been pulling out the last few quarters to make it look like we're selling.

Don't get discouraged by DRS 'slowing down'. Consider the possibility they've inflated our DRS numbers from the beginning, and have been pulling out the last few quarters to make it look like we're selling.
Here's a good DRS chart from this post:

https://preview.redd.it/c9c15uhz2o4b1.png?width=1372&format=png&auto=webp&s=41865477738997006041c2cb72226f1d226f8cbd
Don't have the chart with this quarters numbers included, but we went up by about 600k shares:
Q3'21 - Q4'21: 14.8m
Q4'21 - Q1'22: 15.2m
Q1'22 - Q2'22: 20.5m
Q2'22 - Q4'22: 500k
Q4'22 - Q1'23: 4.2m
Q1'23 - Q2'23: 600k

Now, obviously they'd like to drive the narrative that our enthusiasm for the effort has waned, but to me, this data looks pretty unnatural.

From Q3'21 to Q2'22, "we" were averaging 16.8m shares per quarter. So, from 10/31/21 to 7/31/22, we averaged
14.8 + 15.2 + 20.5 = 50.5/3 = 16.8m shares every 3 months or, 5.61m shares per month.
According to Yahoo historical data, the average closing price during this time was $34.56.
So, from October 2021 to July 2022, "household investors" spent approximately
34.56 * 5,610,000 = $193,881,600 per month.

Then, from 7/31/2022 to 4/29/23, we registered:
5.3m total, or 5,300,000/9 = 589k shares per month
The average closing price during this time was $24.41.
So, in the 9 months that followed, we spent approximately
24.41 * 589,000 = $14,377,490 per month.

The splividend occurred on 7/22/22, and volume's been down about 5.7x since then.
Ask yourselves, do you think it's likely that we're spending 13x less per month since the splividend? Why would that be the case?
A dividend of any kind is bullish for holders, not to mention the price has been lower, and all the progress they've made as a business since last July (positive cash flow/EPS, reduced losses, marketplace, etc.). If anything, you'd think average volume and purchasing amount per month should increase.

I understand the economy has slowed down, and many don't have the purchasing power they did before the exact date of July 22, 2022, but I don't think that offers a realistic explanation.
I think it's more likely that they've been pumping these DRS numbers from the start, planning to slow us down eventually by pulling shares and tanking the price with them to make it look like even the hardcore holders are selling.
I don't think we can tell how much they've contributed to DRS vs. what we've contributed to DRS, or if they have more to keep pulling. At some point though, they'll run out of DRS'd shares and have to start pumping the numbers again if they want to pull the same trick.
It's almost like pumping then crashing numbers around the stock to invoke hype/disappointment is the only move they have? Too bad that won't bankrupt GameStop.
Idk, do what you will with this information. Personally though, I'm going to keep buying and DRSing.

Edit 1: Weird this is getting downvoted so hard...
Edit 2: Sure would be strange if the mods deleted this post for some reason. Guess I'll take a screenshot now so I can repost if they decide to.
Edit 3 (3 hours after post): Interesting how in the first hour, this post had about 6k views, and in the second, it had about 1k, even though it got a gold award within the first 10 min. Also interesting how none of my reasonable responses are getting reasonable or interesting rebuttals in return.
I wonder why that might be?
It can't be because the people hired to respond to these types of things don't actually know what they're talking about. No, the people we're trading against are far too scary and smart to hire people like that.
Nobody could possibly know the answers to such enigmas, but I'll try and do my best to keep piecing together the vast, complex minds of the people who have been stealing from us and ruining the world for 2.5 years.
I'll let you guys know what I find in another post, because from this uninformed 'smooth brain' perspective, it seems like some mischief could be afoot.
submitted by mountainextension to Superstonk [link] [comments]


2023.06.07 16:36 zeke_24 New Moon Saturday

New Moon Saturday
looking forward to dark skies and new beginnings
submitted by zeke_24 to DesertDaze [link] [comments]


2023.06.07 09:11 trakox How can I have every hour in the layout?

How can I have every hour in the layout?
Instead of every 2 hours, cannot find the option. See screenshot:
submitted by trakox to CARROTweather [link] [comments]


2023.06.07 08:09 acaibowl I started in Nov 2022 and have 36* every abyss starting at the end of Feb 2023. So many cope posts complaining or settling, but I'm just saying that you can do it if you actually try. I'm not F2P, but not a whale either. I realize that this is a casual game, but you can do it if you truly want it.

I started in Nov 2022 and have 36* every abyss starting at the end of Feb 2023. So many cope posts complaining or settling, but I'm just saying that you can do it if you actually try. I'm not F2P, but not a whale either. I realize that this is a casual game, but you can do it if you truly want it. submitted by acaibowl to Genshin_Impact [link] [comments]


2023.06.06 14:42 doctorgecko Respect Yukari Yakumo (Touhou)

"Would you like to have a near-death experience? By crossing the boundary between life and death."

Yukari Yakumo

Themes:
Yukari Yakumo is a legendary youkai with the ability to manipulate boundaries. She is one of the sages who created Gensokyo in the first place, and a good contender for its most powerful resident. Despite this she is also exceptionally lazy, spending most of her time sleeping and foisting most of the problems off on Reimu or Ran. Still, her incredible intelligence and completely inhuman nature means one can never tell quite what she's thinking, and making her angry is a very bad idea.

Notes

  • Source Index
  • Perfect Memento in Strict Sense and Symposium of Post Mysticism is an in universe book written by Hidea no Akyuu. She has a tendency to exaggerate and speculate, so her claims should be taken with a grain of salt.
  • Yukari herself is noted to lie quite a lot, so her own claims should also be taken with a grain of salt.
  • In 15.5 Yukari makes use of the urban legend Teke Teke, but her attacks while using this urban legend are fairly in line with her normal capabilities. As it's unclear what effect the Urban legend is having, these feats will be included in this section but marked with Occult
  • Yukari scales to a large number of characters, so here is every Touhou respect thread for the games

Defining Some Terms

Spell Card System: The Spell Card Rules were put in place by Reimu Hakurei in order to make duels between everyone fair, formalized, and safe. It is also the method nearly all Touhou characters will use in-character. Spell card battles have very clearly defined rules and attacks that are agreed upon before a duel with the purpose being that the most beautiful attacks win. In general Spell Cards are characters going easy on the foe, with ZUN outright stating they're not something the characters would ever use if they were serious.
Danmaku: Danmaku are the "bullets" fired in a bullet hell, take many different forms, and are able to be fired by most Gensokyo citizens. They're an essential part of duels in Gensokyo, being used to control an opponent's movement and overwhelm them. They can either be fired in intricate patterns, or just fired rapidly from a single point.
Youkai: Supernatural beings typically born from humanity's fear of the unknown, and the primary residents of Gensokyo. Youkai can be highly varied, but tend to be highly resistant to physical attacks while far more weak to spiritual attacks, such as names and traditions.
Gensokyo: Genoskyo is the region Touhou takes place in, and is a small landlocked region of Japan. It is fully enclosed by the Great Hakurei Barrier (more information bellow). The clearest picture of it shows it containing a few mountains, with it also being noted Gensokyo is small enough to see almost all of it from the Hakurei shrine
  • The Sages of Genoskyo (of which Yukari is a member) are the beings responsible for the creation and maintenance of Gensokyo
Urban Legend Incident: Due to the occult balls various Urban Legends begin to manifest in Gensokyo, and some characters are capable of controlling an urban legend in battle that matches their tempermant. It's worth noting that the effects are present even after the occult balls are removed from Gensokyo though Reisen notes it will soon settle down.

Boundary Manipulation

General Description: Summarized, Yukari's power allows her to manipulate the boundary between any two things.This can apply both to physical boundaries (such as between Gensokyo and the outside world), or even the boundary of concepts (such as human and youkai or night and day).
Direct Combat Usage
Gaps and Warping
Great Hakurei Barrier
Gensokyo's Boundary of Reality and Illusion
Misc

Other Abilities

Note that a number of feats here potentially involve boundary manipulation, but it's less explicit
Energy Projection
Shikigami: Shikigami are spirits that have been turned into tools via a patter, that have software installed to control them
Umbrella
Senses
submitted by doctorgecko to respectthreads [link] [comments]


2023.06.05 19:20 BlackHoleEra_123 I was trying to build a Hardmode segment of the Dungeon, and then suddenly, my caves turned to Jungle. What's wrong?

I was trying to build a Hardmode segment of the Dungeon, and then suddenly, my caves turned to Jungle. What's wrong? submitted by BlackHoleEra_123 to Terraria [link] [comments]


2023.06.05 18:44 chug-a-lug-donna [RATE ANOUNCEMENT] 1994 GRAMMYs Award for Best Alternative Music Album: Belly vs. Nirvana vs. R.E.M. vs. Smashing Pumpkins vs. U2

Hello, and welcome to Music’s Biggest Night!
That’s right, it’s the GRAMMYs. The year is 1994 and our category is Best Alternative Music Album. We’ll be rating each of the five nominees on Indieheads, but before we get to the nominees, a quick word about rates.
Hey, quick question, what are rates?
Obviously, if you're familiar with the process, skip this. But if you're new, I'll explain so this doesn't seem like a wild block of text!
Rates are a subreddit game in which a user scores a group of songs on a scale from 1-10, with each individual also given a single 11 and a single 0 to be used exactly once per rate. They will then message their ballot to the rate host, who will tally up all the points and then reveal the final results over a weekend, eliminating songs one by one until the last track remaining wins the rate and bragging rights forever. While there's just a bit more to know, I feel this is the basics of what you'll need to understand what's going on. I do recommend this video made by our popheads brethren to get a fuller picture; while some of the info applies specifically to the way popheads do their rates, the overall format is similar.

Introduction

The GRAMMYs are awards presented by The Recording Academy of the United States to recognize outstanding achievements in the music industry. The name derives from the trophy, which is shaped like an old-fashioned gramophone. The awards celebrate a variety of categories, but we’re going to be looking at Best Alternative Music Album or, as it was called at the time, Best Alternative Music Performance. The question of what "alternative" really means can be debated forever, but the original intent of this award was to celebrate non-mainstream rock albums which were heavily played on college radio. The category first appeared in 1991, so in 1994 the award is still pretty new.
And now, let’s meet our nominees!

Belly - Star

Belly are the act here that seem discussed least frequently on Indieheads, so I’m excited to see what everyone thinks of them. By the time of starting Belly, Tanya Donelly (lead vocals and rhythm guitar) had already been in two other classic indie rock bands. She was a co-founder of Throwing Muses with her step-sister Kristin Hersch, contributing vocals and guitar for the band’s first decade, though she’d only get a handful of songs per album. Donelly would later start The Breeders with Pixies bassist and vocalist Kim Deal. The Breeders’ debut, Pod, featured Deal as the primary songwriter because existing record contracts prohibited the two from sharing primary writing credits. While they originally intended to alternate albums, Tanya had begun to form Belly by the time it was her turn to do a Breeders album. She recruited Fred Abong (bass) and brothers Tom (guitar) and Chris (drums) Gorman as they’d all known each other while going to high school in Rhode Island.
Belly co-produced most of their 1993 debut Star with Tracy Chisholm. Gil Norton, who’d previously produced Throwing Muses’ self-titled debut, produced four tracks, including singles "Gepetto," "Slow Dog," and "Feed the Tree." "Feed the Tree," one of the album’s highlights, would be the band’s highest charting hit, reaching 95th on the Billboard Hot 100 and topping the Modern Rock Chart. Star is an effective fusion of alternative rock with jangle pop, dream pop, "haunting" folk, and even some light country influences. At the 1994 GRAMMYs, Belly were also up for Best New Artist with Blind Melon, Digable Planets, and SWV, ultimately losing to R&B singer Toni Braxton. Belly released a sophomore album King in 1995 and Donelly released several solo albums before reuniting with the King lineup to release a third album in 2018. While Star may not have achieved the canonical stature of some of 1994’s other nominees, it is nevertheless a very enjoyable release from a strong songwriter who’d finally gotten the chance to make an album-length statement of her own.
Are Indieheads gonna feed the tree? Will this be an album to die for?
Tracklist:
  1. Someone to Die For
  2. Angel
  3. Dusted
  4. Every Word
  5. Gepetto
  6. Witch
  7. Slow Dog
  8. Low Red Moon
  9. Feed The Tree
  10. Full Moon, Empty Heart
  11. White Belly
  12. Untogether
  13. Star
  14. Sad Dress
  15. Stay

Nirvana - In Utero

If you were wondering where "Heart Shaped Box" was in the Guitar Hero Rate, well I’ve got a treat for you!
Kurt Cobain (vocals and guitar) and Krist Novoselic (bass) met while attending Aberdeen High School in the late 1980s. They shuffled through various names, ultimately deciding on Nirvana because Cobain wanted a name that sounded beautiful and nice instead of mean and raunchy. In their early years, they worked with several different drummers, recording 1989’s Sub Pop debut Bleach with Chad Channing on drums. Channing left the band as they worked on their follow-up. Kurt and Krist met drummer Dave Grohl days after he’d moved to Seattle following the break up of his Washington DC band Scream. The addition of Dave solidified Nirvana’s classic lineup. The trio began seeking a major label to buy them out of their Sub Pop contract as they were dissatisfied with the label’s lack of promotion and distribution of their debut. They eventually signed with DGC Records per the recommendation of Sonic Youth’s Kim Gordon. Upon signing, they began work on their major label debut, Nevermind, with producer Butch Vig. 1991’s Nevermind was an unexpected success, bringing grunge and alternative rock to the mainstream and even surpassing Michael Jackson on the Billboard albums chart.
In the aftermath of Nevermind’s success, Cobain felt he needed to reclaim his punk ethic. Wanting to depart from Butch Vig’s slick production (don’t worry, we’ll still be hearing from Vig a little later), he sought to work with Steve Albini. Albini was famous in the underground for his work as frontman for Big Black and various production work, including PJ Harvey’s Dry. He sent a copy of Dry to Cobain to give him an idea of the acoustics in his studio. Albini dismissed Nirvana as "R.E.M. with a fuzzbox" (more on R.E.M. soon!) but decided to work with them because he felt bad for them, recognizing them as "the same sort of people as all the small-fry bands I deal with." The band pushed for minimal label oversight and recorded In Utero quickly, wrapping recording sessions in as little as 13 days. The album was noisier and more abrasive than Nevermind, resulting in much dispute between the band, Albini, and the label. Cobain sought to make the kind of record he’d enjoy owning as a fan but began having second thoughts about the sound when listening to it at home. The press picked up on conflict about the album’s sound. The band denied this and DGC president David Geffen called Newsweek to explain they would release whatever Nirvana recorded. Behind the scenes, the band tried to fix the album’s sound in the mastering process, which Albini was strongly against. He’d later supply an alternate mix for the album’s 20th anniversary re-release. R.E.M producer Scott Litt was brought on to remix "Heart Shaped Box" and "All Apologies" which were intended to be the album’s singles.
In Utero was released in September of 1993 following a low-key release strategy which sent "Heart Shaped Box" as a promo-only single to various rock station formats but not Top 40. Walmart and K-Mart initially refused to stock the album due to its back cover and the title of the song "Rape Me." (A content note on that song, while it is interpreted as commentary on the invasive music press, it was intended to be a lyrically literal anti-rape song from the perspective of a victim. As this is a rate, you can score this song however you see fit, but I hope it goes without saying that everyone should please be respectful of this subject matter in their comments.) Despite In Utero’s abrasive sound and reduced mainstream promotion, the album still debuted at number one on the Billboard album charts and was well-received by critics. The music often hits harder and faster than Nevermind, containing more of the "punk" feel that Cobain was aiming for compared to the grunge of their early work and their Seattle contemporaries. Check out this MTV clip if you’d like to see how college students in 1993 received the album at the time. The band toured America shortly after In Utero came out. Their European tour that was cut short as Cobain suffered from a drug overdose. A couple weeks later, Cobain died by suicide. As with the subject matter of "Rape Me," I want to request that everyone is respectful of this in their comments, I will ask for edits (or omit comments myself) if they are inappropriate. Despite the tragic ending, Nirvana is still seen as one of American and alternative rock’s most important bands and In Utero remains highly regarded to this day.
Will our comments be all apologies? Are the results of this rate gonna be, uhhh, dumb?
Tracklist:
  1. Serve the Servants
  2. Scentless Apprentice
  3. Heart-Shaped Box
  4. Rape Me
  5. Frances Farmer Will Have Her Revenge on Seattle
  6. Dumb
  7. Very Ape
  8. Milk It
  9. Pennyroyal Tea
  10. Radio Friendly Unit Shifter
  11. Tourette’s
  12. All Apologies

R.E.M. - Automatic for the People

If there’s a band who can rival Nirvana’s stature in the American alternative rock canon, it’s gotta be R.E.M. They are often cited as one of the first "alternative" rock bands and were important for the college radio format. Formed in Athens, Georgia in 1980, Michael Stipe (vocals), Peter Buck (guitar), Mike Mills (bass), and Bill Berry (drums) released 5 albums with independent label I.R.S. Records. This run of releases showed them evolving from a jangle rock sound to a louder, more anthemic sound on their final record for the label, Document. After "The One I Love" became their first mainstream hit, the band signed to Warner Brothers, kicking off a second act that resulted in yet another 5 album run of great music.
At the start of the 90s, R.E.M. opted out of touring and became a studio band. The band recorded demos for the songs "Drive," "Try Not to Breathe," and "Nightswimming" at Prince’s Paisley Park Studios while mixing their 1991 album, Out of Time. Out of Time was a huge success, arriving as alternative rock was becoming mainstream. It spawned the massive single "Losing My Religion" and even ended up winning the GRAMMY award for Best Alternative Music Album in 1992. After concluding promotional duties in early 1991, the band returned to the studio to continue work on what would become Automatic for the People. It is the fourth of six records the band would produce with Scott Litt. The band traded off instruments in the studio, with Buck playing the mandolin famously featured on "Losing My Religion," Mills playing piano or organ, and Berry playing bass. Initial attempts to make a harder rocking follow-up did not pan out, as the band found they were writing better without drums. The material began to take on a more melancholic tone. The lush orchestration of Out of Time is rendered in a somber greyscale, with arrangements contributed by Led Zeppelin’s John Paul Jones. Lyrically, the album muses on loss and mourning, prompting rumors that balding Michael Stipe was dying of cancer or AIDs. Luckily, he was not but that is the lens through which some critics and listeners received this work. The album also finds room for political commentary, most noticeably in "Ignoreland" which pushes against Republican politics of the time, but also in opener "Drive" which calls back to the group’s work with the Rock to Vote movement, for which they added a petition on the longbox packaging of Out of Time.
Automatic for the People released on October 5, 1992 (gotta love the GRAMMYs odd eligibility window) debuting at number 2 on the Billboard 200. Unlike its predecessor, it never reached the top spot, thanks to Garth Brooks. Six of the album’s 12 tracks were released as singles including "Drive," "Everybody Hurts" which has unfortunately been diluted through years of ironic use in comedies, the cryptic, Andy Kaufman referencing "Man on the Moon," and "Nightswimming," an emotional piano ballad that has become a fan favorite. The album was critically acclaimed upon release and, while perhaps not as fun as their jangle material, this nocturnal bummer is regarded by many as one of the band’s masterpieces.
Will everybody hurt? Are R.E.M. going to get a raw deal?
Tracklist:
  1. Drive
  2. Try Not to Breathe
  3. The Sidewinder Sleeps Tonite
  4. Everybody Hurts
  5. New Orleans Instrumental No. 1
  6. Sweetness Follows
  7. Monty Got a Raw Deal
  8. Ignoreland
  9. Star Me Kitten
  10. Man on the Moon
  11. Nightswimming
  12. Find the River

The Smashing Pumpkins - Siamese Dream

The Smashing Pumpkins formed in 1988 when Billy Corgan (vocals and guitar, he prefers William Patrick Corgan now though) met James Iha (guitar) while working at a record store in Chicago, Illinois. They performed as a duo with a drum machine, eventually adding bassist D’arcy Wretzky after meeting her at a show by the Dan Reed Network. Jazz drummer Jimmy Chamberlain was recommended by a friend of Corgan’s after the trio were booked for a show under the condition that they’d play with a live drummer instead of their drum machine. With Chamberlain on board, the band’s classic lineup had been formed and their sound began to shift in a harder rock direction.
Siamese Dream, the group’s 1993 sophomore album, expands on their 1991 debut Gish in every possible way. The band switched from Virgin subsidiary Caroline Records to Virgin itself. Butch Vig, who produced Nirvana’s massive Nevermind right after finishing work on Gish, returned to produce the follow-up. Where Gish’s $20,000 budget and month of recording time was "unprecedented" for Vig, Corgan and Vig spent four months on Siamese Dream and went $250,000 over budget. This is what happens when you let Billy overdub everyone else’s guitar and bass parts (something the rest of the band wasn’t particularly happy about) to get as many as 100 guitar parts compressed into one song.
The meticulous studio process paid off, as Siamese Dream was a bigger hit than Gish, peaking at 10 on the Billboard 200. The band’s influences from metal, dreampop, and shoegaze give the album a layered and unique sound compared to the grungier alternative music of the time. Singles "Cherub Rock" and "Today" have been featured in the Guitar Hero and Rock Band videogame series. While never released as a single, "Mayonaise" has become a fan favorite and won a Rolling Stone poll for best Pumpkins song, beating out singles from Siamese Dream. Judging from some early discussion since this rate was announced, some of you seem pretty excited to rate "Mayonaise." While the double album follow-up Mellon Collie and the Infinite Sadness took the band to the height of their popularity, Siamese Dream is often regarded as their masterpiece and one of the best rock albums of the 90s.
Will we be sweet sweet to the Pumpkins? The rater in me is the rater in you, I’ll send this ballot over to you
Tracklist:
  1. Cherub Rock
  2. Quiet
  3. Today
  4. Hummer
  5. Rocket
  6. Disarm
  7. Soma
  8. Geek U.S.A.
  9. Mayonaise
  10. Spaceboy
  11. Silverfuck
  12. Sweet Sweet
  13. Luna

U2 - Zooropa

Whoa hey is it U2sday??
Formed in Dublin, Ireland in 1976, U2 (Bono on vocals, The Edge on guitar, Adam Clayton on bass, and Larry Mullen Jr. on drums) have become the top-selling Irish musical act of all-time, with an estimated 170+ million records sold. Across the 80s, U2 evolved their early post-punk sound to the anthemic rock of The Joshua Tree. While touring America for that album, the band recorded Rattle and Hum, a hybrid live/studio record (and accompanying concert film) which documented the tour and the group’s fascination with American roots music. Despite the album’s commercial success, most consider it a misguided failure. Even Bono admitted at their final show for the album’s Lovetown Tour that "we have to go away and dream it all up again."
1993’s Zooropa catches U2 at their most adventurous. 1991’s Achtung Baby and its subsequent Zoo TV tour rebranded the band for the new decade. While they continued working with Unforgettable Fire and The Joshua Tree producers Brian Eno and Daniel Lanois, they updated their sound with influences from electronic, dance, and industrial music. On stage, they dabbled in irony to counter the sincerity of their 80s output with Bono playing characters such as The Fly and Macphisto. Emboldened by the critical and commercial success of this album and tour, they began working on a promotional EP during a break between Zoo TV tour legs. Despite working quickly in the studio, this EP expanded into a full-length album, requiring the band to travel between concerts and the studio in Dublin to finish working on the album during the first month of the Zooropa leg.
Zooropa finally arrived in July of 1993 and it shows the band doubling down on their early 90s ideas. The sound of the album, built from loops of soundcheck jamming and leftover sketches from Achtung Baby, ventures even further from traditional rock instrumentation and songwriting, bolstered by production from Brian Eno, Flood (moving from an engineering to production role), and The Edge, who received production credits for the first time. The fragmented nature of the album’s production is reflected in the eclectic tracklist which bounces between the multi-movement art-rock of the title track, dancefloor fillers like "Daddy’s Gonna Pay for Your Crashed Car," and ballads like "For the First Time" and "Stay (Faraway, So Close!)" Unique vocal choices like The Edge’s spoken-word rapping on lead-single "Numb," Bono’s falsetto on "Lemon," and a Johnny Cash feature on closer "The Wanderer" help the album feel more varied than U2’s previous material. The album’s lyrics often examine Zoo TV’s concepts of "sensory overload" and technology more explicitly than Achtung Baby.
While U2 are reluctant to acknowledge Zooropa now (likely influenced by the failure of 1997’s Pop, a rushed, mixed bag of an album that stretched audiences' tolerance for 90s U2 to a Rattle and Hum-like breaking point) the album was successful when it came out. Zooropa debuted at number one in several countries and finished ninth on 1993’s Pazz and Jop poll. It would also go on to win this GRAMMY award for Best Alternative Music album, with Bono shrugging on stage, shouting out Smashing Pumpkins, and promising to "the young people of America" that they will "continue to abuse our position and fuck up the mainstream" in his acceptance speech.
Will U2 stay the champions in our rate or will they be faraway so close to the top?
Tracklist:
  1. Zooropa
  2. Babyface
  3. Numb
  4. Lemon
  5. Stay (Faraway, So Close!)
  6. Daddy’s Gonna Pay for Your Crashed Car
  7. Some Days Are Better Than Others
  8. The First Time
  9. Dirty Day
  10. The Wanderer

Bonus Rate

While our rates often have a bonus, there is no bonus for the 1994 GRAMMYs since this rate is 5 albums instead of the usual 4.
Now, it’s time for the boring, but necessary parts:

Where to listen:

Spotify
Apple Music
Tidal Music

Rules - READ ALL OF THESE BEFORE SUBMITTING YOUR SCORES

  1. Listen to each song and assign each a score between 1 and 10. decimals are fine, but please refrain from giving decimal scores that have two decimal spots: giving a 7.2 is okay, but giving a 7.25 will give me a headache. This is because I'm using a computer program to parse the votes and print everything out (more on that later).
  2. Yes, you have to listen to every song. We're all in this together. I will not accept your ballot if you have a score missing, because it will crash the program (more on that later).
  3. Your scores should NOT be considered confidential. They aren’t. Feel free to shitpost about them in the general discussion threads whenever you feel like it - users over at popheads usually just talk about their averages of the albums and what 11 and 0 they gave (which I will explain on the next bullet point!)
  4. You may give ONE song a 0 and ONE song an 11. This is ONE song TOTAL. Please reserve these for your least favorite and most favorite tracks; excessive sabotage ruins rate results and generally makes things less fun.
  5. You can change your scores at any time! Feel free to PM me at any point after submission and I'll be happy to revise them for you.
  6. I am using a computer program that the great and wonderful letsallpoo designed in order to parse these votes! While this will make things a lot more efficient and reduces errors on my part, this does mean that scores need to be sent in a very specific way. The easiest way to make sure your scores follow the necessary format is to use the pre-prepared link at the top & bottom of this post. PLEASE USE THAT. You can copy and paste it to a notepad file or something and fill in your scores there, but PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE use that format to send in your scores.
  7. Did a lot of copy and pasting here, so thank you thank you to all the raters of old, ily: roseisonlineagain; DolphLundgrensArms; R_E_S_I_G_N_E_D; stansymash; ClocktowerMaria; aerocom; themilkeyedmender; greencaptain; Crankeedoo; dirdbub; ThatParanoidPenguin; tedcruzcontrol; kappyko; FuckUpSomeCommasYeah; LazyDayLullaby; SRTViper; Whatsanillinois; NFLFreak98; freav; freeofblasphemy; RatesNorman; aPenumbra; idontreallycare4; p-u-n-k_girl; luigijon3; WaneLietoc; dream_fighter2018; darjeelingdarkroast; smuckles; PiperIBarelyKnowHer; welcome2thejam; imrlynotonreddit; kvothetyrion; thedoctordances1940; b_o_g_o; vapourlomo; MCK_OH; TiltControls; u/TakeOnMeByA-ha; and tons of people on popheads.

Formatting

Songs - This is correct:
Man on the Moon: 10
You may also and are generally encouraged to leave comments with your scores!
This is correct (single space after the score, no colon):
Man on the Moon: 10 I'm glad Michael didn't get stuck doing the Elvis voice
Any of the following formats are incorrect:
Man on the Moon 10 I'm glad Michael didn't get stuck doing the Elvis voice
Man on the Moon: 10: I'm glad Michael didn't get stuck doing the Elvis voice
Man on the Moon: (10) I'm glad Michael didn't get stuck doing the Elvis voice
Man on the Moon: I'm glad Michael didn't get stuck doing the Elvis voice 10
Man on the Moon - 10 I'm glad Michael didn't get stuck doing the Elvis voice
Man on the Moon: 10/10 I'm glad Michael didn't get stuck doing the Elvis voice
Albums - This is correct (add a colon after the album's title on your ballot if you're making a comment on the full album):
Album: Zooropa: Wow this rules, i wish they'd uploaded this album to my phone instead

Due Date: July 9

Reveal: July 14 - 16

Finally, here are the links you'll need to start rating again:

SUBMISSION LINK

A Pastebin link of the ballot can be found here
If you want a reminder of what rates are coming up soon, here is the link to the announcement post for the current cycle, and if you want to learn about all the past rates we have done, here is the rate history spreadsheet.
submitted by chug-a-lug-donna to indieheads [link] [comments]


2023.06.05 17:09 raidftc Selling 230 skin wonder + wildcat + minty, dm me Selling

Selling 230 skin wonder + wildcat + minty, dm me Selling submitted by raidftc to FortniteAccountsSale [link] [comments]


2023.06.05 07:07 girl_from_the_crypt Stuck on earth and looking for a job: There's more to the waitresses at my favorite diner than I thought

Something happened tonight. Something always seems to be happening these days, but this time, it was particularly confusing.
Some days don't even feel real anymore.
After my last post, I did as my savior human had advised me. I called Mary Markov and relayed to her what Jewel had told me. She promised to send agents to the warehouse right away, and late that same night, she reached out to me once again with news of an arrest having been made. Despite this small success, we both knew that this meant outright war. The Collective would know who had given them away, and the possibility of me joining their ranks peacefully would be off the table. The question remaining was when they would make good on their threat. Nettie Peterson's house is being guarded by covert Agency personnel, and mine and Eli's apartments are under watch, too. I'm glad Mary Markov is doing what she can to protect them, but I never doubted that complications would arise eventually.
Just not quite so soon.
The day started off fine. My best friend, still being relatively used to having agents around, doesn't seem to mind the aforementioned changes. The van inconspicuously parked outside her house didn't bother her in the least as she went about her morning routine. I helped her throw together something nourishing for breakfast, then watched her doing her makeup. She likes to keep her lips glossy and often applies lime green eyeshadow paired with a pear-colored line and, on special days, the occasional rhinestone. She looks like a garden fairy. When I told her that today, she treated me to a bright smile and a pat on the cheek.
She went off to look after her larvae, leaving me to roam her house alone. I spent some time inspecting the many drawings she keeps framed on the high wall in the living room. She always brings new ones home from work—gifts from the kindergarteners. They're not very artistically skilled, but they do produce interesting work. Nettie hangs them all up on the special wall, even the really bad ones. I watched TV for a couple hours, then read until Nettie came home.
It was getting dark out when she realized she needed tampons. She said she could get by on what she had until the morning, but no longer. I told her to stay put and that I'd run and get some for her, which is why I went on that fateful evening walk. I gave a quick nod to the agent leaning against the van outside as I started heading down the street, backpack slung over my shoulder. I made it to the convenience store five minutes before closing time, giving the annoyed cashier an apologetic look as she rang me up. Outside, the nightly blackness had settled over the rooftops, and I took in a deep breath, letting the fresh air flood my body.
All was well as I began to march back in the direction of Nettie's home. Until I heard a motorcycle revving.
…Jewel?
I instantly froze up. There was no one immediately in sight. I tried to soothe my fevered mind. There was no reason to be so on edge. A lot of town residents owned motorcycles, or at least I assumed they did. This reaction was a testament to my own waning sanity, no doubt. I shuddered, making an effort to shake the thought. There was a nervous tension in my step as I continued on my way. The engine noises faded off into the distance after a while, and I concluded that I was indeed becoming a bit paranoid.
Step by step, I carried myself towards my goal. Nettie Peterson's street wasn't anywhere in sight yet, but I would probably be at her door in around ten minutes tops. I had walked the distance between her house and the store often enough to estimate. I considered putting my earbuds in and listening to some music as a distraction, but I was afraid of what I might end up missing if I took away my sense of hearing. I began to chew on the inside of my cheek.
There was not a soul out except for me. This wasn't uncommon considering the size of our town, but given the circumstances, it still served to elevate my heart rate. I repeatedly tried and failed to calm myself. Eventually, I couldn't help it anymore. I took off running. And then it happened—someone stepped out from a sidestreet right ahead of me and we collided. Large hands flew to my shoulders, long fingers harshly digging into them. I didn't need to look up at the other person to recognize them. I sensed the same musky smell that had lingered around my room for hours after their last visit; warm, sweet and impossible to ignore. I could suddenly hear every single beat of my heart reverberating between my ears. Dread seemed to dribble down my bone-dry throat, pooling in my stomach like cold water.
I slowly lifted my head, knowing exactly who was about to stare back at me.
Jewel's eyes were incredibly wide. Their brows were trembling in manic, barely restrained fury, their lower lip quivered and, to my complete bewilderment, tears were freely rolling down their cheeks. They solidified the moment the skin contact was lost, turning into shimmering stones of green, blue and violet. I reached out and caught one before it could hit the ground. It was bright pink, and I found myself captivated by its beauty.
"So, can I… keep this?" I asked, tilting my head at the cultist.
Their chest was rising and falling heavily, and I shrank back a little when I took note of their nostrils flaring. "You are so dead," they uttered in a low, husky growl.
"I take it you got news of the Agency's involvement?"
Jewel once more closed the distance between us. They leaned down, their gemstone tears bouncing off my chest as they fell. "You spiteful little bitch. You'd rather try to ruin a good cause than forgive me and work together?"
"You can't be this delusional."
"Don't tell me what I can and cannot do!" they snapped, their voice rising to an eerily high pitch. They paused, looking briefly confused by what they'd said before the wrathful expression twisted their features again.
"What now? Are you seriously going to attack me out in the open like this?"
"Oh." Jewel drew themself up, squaring their muscled shoulders. "Oh, I'll manage."
Their outline before me started to blur, becoming fuzzy and indistinct. I blinked, then reached up to rub my eyes. They weren't becoming any clearer, though. Frowning, I took several steps back, squinting at the spot where the cultist had just been standing. The cultist was quickly turning into a faint, paling swirl of colors, losing shape before at last disappearing completely.
I was speechless, my pulse racing as beads of sweat ran down the side of my face. I couldn't believe it. Had all of this been some sort of hallucination? I raised a hand to my feverishly hot forehead. I was losing my mind. That had to be it. My gaze dropped to the gray asphalt and my breath caught in my throat when I spotted the colorful stones lying at my feet. Fuck.
A soft laugh rang out beside my ear, a draft of moist, warm air grazing my cheek.
I instinctively swung at the emptiness beside me, my clenched fist connecting with nothing. No.
"Come back here," I whined, flinching at the unmasked fear in my own voice. A sharp pain flared up in my ankle as my feet were swiped out from under me. I let out a squeak as I fell onto my open palms, managing to shield my head from the impact just in time. The rough ground scraped my hands and knees as I hurriedly pushed myself up, a few stray pebbles drawing blood. Despite my panic, my mind was clear enough to understand that I was in a precarious position. I couldn't just whip out my tentacles—not here where anyone could see me. It would for sure result in hysteria. People could start straight-up shooting at me. I'd end up looking like a monstrosity on a rampage, especially with Jewel having gone invisible. As it were, I only had one option, and that was to run.
I didn't waste another second. There was no way I was leading this murder cultist back to Nettie, but I had to find somewhere with other people, anywhere…
Aimlessly charging ahead, I tried to bring more distance between myself and the disembodied footsteps ringing out from behind me. Before long however, it was becoming hard to tell how far away they truly were. The sound seemed to flit from side to side, reaching my ears from constantly changing directions. The asshole was messing with my head.
Soon enough, my lungs were on fire. My sides were stinging; breathing became harder. I inwardly cursed my useless short legs. Still, I didn't slow down; I didn't dare to. I was growing increasingly desperate. Where was I supposed to go? I couldn't think of any places still open. And then, cutting through the darkness, a flickering neon sign offered the answer to all of my questions. Tom's Diner. With hope renewing my spirits, I picked up my pace once more. Rhonda was just in the process of moving the big menu sign inside for the night. I came to a skittering halt mere inches in front of her, helplessly grabbing onto her apron before she could close the door behind her.
She spun around to face me with knotted brows. "Evangeline?"
"Help me," I wheezed. "Let me in, quick!"
Rhonda, though still visibly perplexed, sprang into action, dragging me inside along with her. I slammed the door shut, throwing my entire weight against it. An unseen force clashed against it from outside, making the entire storefront shudder. The waitress nearly dropped her sign. "What in the—"
"They're after me," I choked out. "You can't see them, but they're right outside!"
"Oh." Her expression cleared up. "Say no more, say no more." She reached into her apron pocket, rummaging around while mumbling to herself. "I'm picking up what you're putting down…" She produced a bright red marker. "Allow me." Swiftly stepping up to me, she raised the felt tip to my forehead, proceeding to draw something onto my skin with smooth, efficient accuracy. An incoherent whisper slipped from her lips, words in a language I had never heard before. Finally, she pulled back. "Turn around, try if you can see them now. The door locks automatically, by the way."
I hesitantly shifted my weight back onto my feet, releasing the door and turning to look out into the night. I let out a gasp, staggering back when I found the contorted visage of the cultist pressed up against the glass. Jewel's eyes were still rimmed with shimmering tears, their mouth twisted in a grimace of murderous rage. They frowned in confusion when they realized that my gaze was once more trained on them. It didn't take long until they started pounding on the windowpane again.
"Hey! You stop that," Rhonda shouted, stabbing a finger in their direction. "I just cleaned that today! Oh hell… Hailey!" she called over her shoulder. "We have a problem; come help."
Another waitress came rushing out of the back room. Glancing between us and the pacing cultist outside had her huff out a sigh. "I see," she said icily. Determinedly striding towards the door, she lifted her voice, beginning to recite a verse or rhyme of some sort. It all sounded like gibberish to me. My head was spinning, my mind running wild, unable to keep track of what was happening around me. My skull suddenly felt prickly from the inside, my whole body seemingly turning weightless. My vision fell away as my eyes rolled back and my knees gave out from beneath me. I had lost consciousness before I hit the floor.
I don't believe I was out for very long, despite my exhausted body embracing the cold slumber. A voice tugged on the edge of my hearing, gently guiding me towards wakefulness. I had been moved onto a slightly softer, more comfortable surface. I arduously craned my neck up to overlook my surroundings. I was lying on one of the padded benches next to the stationary tables. Crouching beneath it in order to sit close to me was a very familiar figure.
"Hey, Sunshine." Frankie Preston straightened up as far as he could without hitting his head. "Sorry I wasn't there to catch you when you fainted. Too bad. It could have been our movie-moment."
I smiled at him. Then I jolted upright, nearly kicking Frankie under the table as I planted my feet on the floor to train my eyes on Rhonda. She was leaning against the partition wall of the booth, typing away on her phone. "You," I uttered. "You and that other lady did some kind of… witchcraft-thing."
She glanced up briefly. "Oh. That was nothing, really. Forget about it."
Fran poked his head out from between my legs. "What's this about witchcraft?"
Rhonda shrugged. "Hailey and I just performed some basic spells to get rid of your little wife's stalker."
"Could you please not—nevermind that; what are you even talking about?" Fran's voice was dripping with bewilderment.
The older woman raised a brow at him. "Honey, we're… we're witches. You did know that, right?"
Silence.
"Right?" Rhonda repeated, once again not receiving a response.
"I don't think he did," I supplied helpfully.
"You're kidding me." Rhonda stared at the blonde with her mouth agape. "How could you not have known? You lived with us for almost two years!"
He still gave no answer.
"Honey, you saw everything! You saw my herbs…" Her voice faltered in disbelief. "And the ceremonial daggers… The charms around the doors!"
He shrugged.
"You played with Mae-Lynn's casting crystals for a whole afternoon? You were in the room when Paloma made her sacrifice for Loki's favor? You literally watched all six of us at our bonfire dance during the blood moon!"
"I thought that was just another crunchy mom thing."
"Crunchy mom thing?" she echoed, her chest rising at the affront. Jabbing a finger at my forehead, she added, "And how would you have accounted for that?"
"That little drawing? I thought Eva had gotten herself tattooed." Frankie glanced between Rhonda and me in confusion.
"It's a magic symbol, for crying out loud; it's a protection against forces messing with her perception!" the waitress explained in audible exasperation. "And who would get their forehead inked?"
"Eva might. You gotta admit she has peculiar fashion tastes," Frankie argued.
I couldn't help but chime in. "Why do people keep saying that?"
Rhonda threw her hands up in defeat.
I cleared my throat. "You're saying that all the ladies working here have supernatural abilities?"
"Like I just told you." She rubbed her temples with both hands. "And I'm sorry you fainted. It had to do with Hailey—her magic is great for defending against dark influences. The spell she cast was to scare off your attacker, but it seems to have affected you, too."
"I don't consider myself a dark influence."
"Well, you are an interdimensional being," Rhonda replied. "Not normally mankind's best friend. But I know you're a good kid. Don't worry."
"Thank you very much for helping me," I said softly, staring at my hands as I folded them in my lap. "I apologize for the inconvenience."
"It's cool."
"So, the six of you all together are probably really powerful?" I inquired, an idea faintly taking shape in my mind.
"You could say that," Rhonda answered, not without a hint of pride.
"Is there any way I could get your input on a problem I've been having?"
"I suppose," she said slowly. "We'll hear you out, sure, but that's about all the promises I'll make for now, okay?"
"Yes, perfect."
"Alright. I'll talk to the girls and we'll be in touch." She zipped up her jacket, shoving her phone into her pocket. "Goodnight, you two."
With that, she left us sitting in the empty diner. Frankie still looked rather puzzled. Shaking his head, he turned to give me a droll smile. "How embarrassing. I normally pride myself on being perceptive. People are strange though, aren't they?" He sat down beside me on the bench, shuffling closer. "You ran into trouble again? With the cultist?"
I didn't really want to relay the entirety of what I'd learned from Jewel to him—somehow, I didn't think Frankie would be opposed to someone bringing by the end of the world. It would be best to keep that particular piece of information stored away for a while longer. Instead, I asked a completely different, if not wholly unrelated question. "The other day, you told me about feeling destructive and grimy. Where is that coming from?"
"Sunshine, I know I've danced around this for long enough. I can tell you, but you look miserable right now. I'd much rather have you in better spirits first." He placed a tentative hand on my back. "Anything I can do to cheer you up?"
I started chewing on my lower lip, not meeting his gaze.
"You're thinking about kissing me again, aren't you?" Frankie asked, having apparently learned how to read minds.
"We don't have to. I do not care."
"That nearly crossed the line between accommodating and insulting. Look, I want to. You just caught me off guard the last time." He pulled a wet string from his chewing gum. I waited in silence for him to continue. "I'm honestly surprised you're still up to it. I know I'm a piece of shit."
"You're not—"
"I am. And what's more, you should know that kissing is as far as things are gonna get between us. I don't do the sex-thing. That's nothing to do with how much I like you or anything. I just don't do that." He had removed his gum from his mouth completely, instead fumbling around with it like play doh. "If that cancels out the whole liking-me-extravaganza, then it's best we cleared that up beforehand." He turned to face me. "What's that look for?"
I was beaming at him with more conviction that I had found the most perfect being than ever. "This works out beautifully," I told him.
"Are you sure? You're not just saying this?"
"If you don't take my word for it, I wouldn't know how else to prove it."
"I believe you! I'm glad, I really am, I'm just kinda stunned." He straightened up. "I want to kiss you even more now."
A quiet squeak came from somewhere in my throat. "I can hear my pulse," I remarked.
"Yeah, me too." He grinned, propping his chin in his palm. "Excited?"
"You know that." Feeling I had to share more, I added, "This is the first time for me. That doesn't change anything, does it?"
Fran's brows rose a great deal. "Huh."
"Is that bad?"
"No! But seriously, is this gonna be your first kiss?" He gestured at our surroundings. "A dingy little diner after hours? Not very romantic, is it?"
"That's fine," I assured him.
"Nope. We can do better." He got off the bench, drawing himself up to his full height (which wasn't very impressive either). "It doesn't have to be a big deal, but it should be nice. You're getting a good first kiss. I'll think of something. Don't worry, I won't go over the top."
I couldn't help but smile at that. Letting him pull me to my feet, I briefly went in for a hug. I nearly jumped when he turned his head and pressed his lips to my cheek. "That doesn't count." He held onto my hand as he let go. "So… how would you feel about hypothetically burning a building together?"
X
1
2: deadbeat roommate
3: creepy crush
4: relocation
5: beach concert
6: First date
7: Temp work
8: roommate talk
9: a dismal worldview
10: warehouse
11: staircase
12: explanation
13: hurt
14: hospital
15: ocean
16: diner
17: government work
18: something in the caves
19: shopping cart
20: olms and Jewels
21: long hair
22: recruitment
24: dollhouse
submitted by girl_from_the_crypt to nosleep [link] [comments]


2023.06.05 06:02 Metal_Florida June 5: North/Central Florida concert and festival picks.

Please note that the ticket links are usually for general admission; for VIP tickets, if available, you may have to go to the band's website.
Wednesday, Jun 7, 2023
Mike's Dead, The Haunt Level 13 - Orlando
Within Chaos, Eyes Sewn Shut, Automatik Fit Jack Rabbits - Jacksonville
Jameson Tank, Parks & Razz, Outer Edge Band 1904 Music Hall - Jacksonville
Thursday, Jun 8, 2023
Subhumans, UpChuck, gilt Jack Rabbits - Jacksonville
Friday, Jun 9, 2023
Grass is Dead, The Coppertones Underbelly - Jacksonville
Saturday, Jun 10, 2023
Halo Scars, Mind Virus, Cypher Machine, Re-Birth Brass Mug - Tampa
Maul, Tombstoner, Plasmodulated Conduit - Winter Park
Downswing, Falsifier, Bottomfeeders Manna Tea & Kava Bar - Sarasota
Sunday, Jun 11, 2023
My Children My Bride, Extortionist, No Cure Conduit - Winter Park
Bury Your Dead, Thirst, Edict Tipsy Tiki - Fort Pierce
Monday, Jun 12, 2023
Maul, Tombstoner Brass Mug - Tampa
Spotlights, Skyliner, The Darling Fire Jack Rabbits - Jacksonville
Tuesday, Jun 13, 2023
Halocene, Lauren Babic, Alphamega Hooch & Hive - Tampa
Wednesday, Jun 14, 2023
Drain, Drug Church, Magnitude, Gel Brass Mug - Tampa
Halocene, Lauren Babic, Alphamega Level 13 - Orlando
The Convalescence, Summoner's Circle Jack Rabbits - Jacksonville
pulses., With Sails Ahead, I Met A Yeti Will's Pub - Orlando
Thursday, Jun 15, 2023
Halocene, Lauren Babic, Alphamega Jack Rabbits - Jacksonville
Friday, Jun 16, 2023
Roxx, Re-Birth, Cyber Machine, Haloscars Conduit - Winter Park
Hollow Leg, Clamfight, Moat Cobra Will's Pub - Orlando
Every Avenue, Makeout, Say We Can Fly Orpheum - Tampa
Saturday, Jun 17, 2023
Crossbreed, Cultus Black, Cypher machine, Davey Partain Orpheum - Tampa
Defy the Tyrant, Losing Daylight, Shadow the Earth Kona Skate Park - Jacksonville
Breed, Gillian Carter, Audible Parts Will's Pub - Orlando
Sunday, Jun 18, 2023
Crossbreed, Cultus Black, NoSelf, The Dev Level 13 - Orlando
Bodybox, No Zodiac, High Pressure Conduit - Winter Park
Dikembe, Camp Trash, Glazed Will's Pub - Orlando
Wednesday, Jun 21, 2023
Dream Theater, Devin Townsend, Animals As Leaders Ruth Eckerd Hall - Clearwater
Thursday, Jun 22, 2023
Garbage, Noel Gallagher's High Flying Birds, Metric MIDFLORIDA Credit Union Amphitheatre - Tampa
Friday, Jun 23, 2023
Dream Theater, Devin Townsend, Animals As Leaders Hard Rock Live - Orlando
Saturday, Jun 24, 2023
Misfits, Megadeth, Fear MIDFLORIDA Credit Union Amphitheater - Tampa
Intoxicated, Vacuous Depths, Ebullition Conduit - Winter Park
black midi, YHWH Nailgun Orpheum - Tampa
Sunday, Jun 25, 2023
No/Mas, Knoll, Shock Conduit - Winter Park
Monday, June 26, 2023
We Are the Union, Kill Lincoln, Catbite The Social - Orlando
No/Mas, Knoll Orpheum - Tampa
Tuesday, Jun 27, 2023
Yungblud, The Regrettes, Caspr Jannus - St. Petersburg
Wednesday, Jun 28, 2023
D.R.I., Metalriser Underbelly - Jacksonville
Peter Frampton St. Augustine Amphitheatre
Thursday, Jun 29, 2023
The Cure Amalie Arena - Tampa
D.R.I., Metalriser Will's Pub - Orlando
Saturday, Jul 1, 2023
D.R.I., Metalriser Brass Mug - Tampa
Liliac, Fortune Child The Twisted Fork - Port Charlotte
Sunday, Jul 2, 2023
Godflesh Conduit - Winter Park
Thursday, Jul 6, 2023
Sad Summer Festival Daily's Place Amphitheatre - Jacksonville
Friday, Jul 7, 2023
Sad Summer Festival Coachman Park - Clearwater
Subdivisions, Violence System, The Fallen Sons Jack Rabbits - Jacksonville
Days Of Summer festival Conduit - Winter Park
Saturday, Jul 8, 2023
Memphis May Fire, Norma Jean, Secrets The Beacham - Orlando
Days Of Summer festival Conduit - Winter Park
Sunday, Jul 9, 2023
Memphis May Fire, Norma Jean, Secrets High Dive - Gainesville
Crown The Empire, Varials Orpheum - Tampa
Monday, Jul 10, 2023
blink-182, Turnstile Amalie Arena - Tampa
Orthodox, Cell, Chamber Crowbar - Tampa
Tuesday, Jul 11, 2023
Analepsy, Cognitive, Wormhole, Nectoricgorebeast Conduit - Winter Park
Wednesday, Jul 12, 2023
Analepsy, Cognitive, Wormhole, Nectoricgorebeast Crowbar - Tampa
Thursday, Jul 13, 2023
Staind Seminole Hard Rock - Tampa
Friday, Jul 14, 2023
Staind Hard Rock Live - Orlando
Saturday, Jul 15, 2023
Obituary Brass Mug - Tampa
Flag On Fire, Scatter Shot, Backslide, Regions O'Malley's Alley - Ocala
Monday, Jul 17, 2023
Cenotaph, Horrific Visions, Architectural Genocide Conduit - Winter Park
Tuesday, Jul 18, 2023
Agents of Chaos, Black Clash Jack Rabbits - Jacksonville
Buckcherry Underbelly - Jacksonville
Friday, Jul 21, 2023
Joan Jett & the Blackhearts, Bryan Adams Amalie Arena - Tampa
Mudvayne, Coal Chamber, Gwar, Nonpoint, Butcher Babies MIDFLORIDA Credit Union Amphitheatre - Tampa
The Final Sound, Abbey Death, Layne Lyre New World Music Hall - Tampa
Yosemite In Black, Endbringer, Murder Afloat Orpheum - Tampa
Saturday, Jul 22, 2023
Yellowcard, Mayday Parade, Story of the Year Daily's Place Amphitheatre - Jacksonville
Less Than Jake, Voodoo Glow Skulls, Devon Kay & the Solutions House of Blues - Orlando
Rising Up Angry, Tragic, Legions Blind Kona Skate Park - Jacksonville
Sunday, Jul 23, 2023
Yellowcard, Mayday Parade, Story of the Year Yuengling Center - Tampa
Endbringer, Yosemite In Black, Heavy Hitter 1904 Music Hall - Jacksonville
Tuesday, Jul 25, 2023
Fall Out Boy, Bring Me The Horizon, Royal & The Serpent MIDFLORIDA Credit Union Amphitheatre - Tampa
Thursday, Jul 27, 2023
Havok, Toxic Holocaust, I AM, Hammerhedd Conduit - Winter Park
Friday, Jul 28, 2023
Between the Buried and Me, Rivers of Nihil, Thank you Scientist Jannus - St. Petersburg
Round Eye, No Fraud, Caffiends Will's Pub - Orlando
Saturday, Jul 29, 2023
Between the Buried and Me, Rivers of Nihil, Thank you Scientist Beacham - Orlando
Southpaw, Highest Crown, Fortitude, Dead Mirrors Born Free - Tampa
Sunday, Jul 30, 2023
Crobot, Rickshaw, Billie's Burger Patrol Orpheum - Tampa
Thursday, Aug 3, 2023
Underoath, The Ghost Inside, We Came As Romans Yuengling Center - Tampa
Saturday, Aug 5, 2023
Disturbed, Breaking Benjamin MIDFLORIDA Credit Union Amphitheatre - Tampa
Underoath, The Ghost Inside, We Came As Romans St. Augustine Amphitheatre
Sanguisugabogg, Kruelty, Vomit Forth Conduit - Winter Park
Sunday, Aug 6, 2023
The Queers, The Radio Buzzkills, The Jasons Jack Rabbits - Jacksonville
Wednesday, Aug 9, 2023
Pyrexia, Cerebral Incubation, Atoll Conduit - Winter Park
Friday, Aug 11, 2023
The All-American Rejects, New Found Glory, The Starting Line MIDFLORIDA Credit Union Amphitheatre - Tampa
Black Flag High Dive - Gainesville
Sunday, Aug 13, 2023
Alesana, Vampires Everywhere, Limbs Level 13 - Orlando
Wednesday, Aug 16, 2023
The Offspring, Sum 41, Simple Plan MIDFLORIDA Credit Union Amphitheatre - Tampa
hed p.e., Lydia can't Breathe, Razorz Edge Jack Rabbits - Jacksonville
Saturday, Aug 19, 2023
Left to Suffer, Distant, Justice for the Damned Conduit - Winter Park
Sunday, Aug 20, 2023
The Smashing Pumpkins, Interpol, Rival Sons MIDFLORIDA Credit Union Amphitheatre - Tampa
Tuesday, Aug 22, 2023
The Mezingers Underbelly - Jacksonville
Wednesday, Aug 23, 2023
Bless The Fall, Caskets, Kingdom of Giants Orpheum - Tampa
Thursday, Aug 24, 2023
Clutch, Giovanni & The Hired Guns, Mike Dillon Jannus - St. Petersburg
Saturday, Aug 26, 2023
Rob Zombie, Alice Cooper, Ministry MIDFLORIDA Credit Union Amphitheatre - Tampa
Wednesday, Aug 30, 2023
Ghost, Amon Amarth Daily's Place Amphitheatre - Jacksonville
Thursday, Aug 31, 2023
Ghost, Amon Amarth MIDFLORIDA Credit Union Amphitheatre - Tampa
Saturday, Sep 2, 2023
Baby Metal, Dethklok, Jason Richardson Orlando Amphitheater
Sunday, Sep 3, 2023
Spitalfield, Rookie of the Year, The Future Perfect Conduit - Winter Park
Tuesday, Sep 5, 2023
Bad Omens, ERRA, I See Stars Jannus - St. Petersburg
Wednesday, Sep 6, 2023
Bad Omens, ERRA, I See Stars House of Blues - Orlando
Friday, Sep 8, 2023
The Waning Moon, Palace of Tears, Rux Vendetta Hooch & Hive - Tampa
Saturday, Sep 9, 2023
Kamelot, Battle Beast, Xandria Hard Rock Live - Orlando
Sunday, Sep 10, 2023
Angelmaker, Vulvodynia, Flasifier Conduit - Orlando
Tuesday, Sep 12, 2023
Black Veil Brides, VV, Dark Divine Jannus - St. Petersburg
Wednesday, Sep 13, 2023
3 Doors Down, Candlebox Daily's Place Amphitheatre - Jacksonville
Dance Gavin Dance, SiM, Rain City Drive Hard Rock Live - Orlando
Friday, Sep 15, 2023
3 Doors Down, Candlebox MIDFLORIDA Credit Union Amphitheatre - Tampa
Saturday, Sep 16, 2023
Movements, Mannequin Pussy, Softcult The Ritz - Tampa
Sunday, Sep 17, 2023
Avenged Sevenfold, Falling in Reverse MIDFLORIDA Credit Union Amphitheatre - Tampa
Wave to Earth, slchld Orpheum - Tampa
Tuesday, Sep 19, 2023
Scowl, Militarie Gun, MSPAINT Conduit - Winter Park
Thursday, Sep 21, 2023
Scowl, Militarie Gun, MSPAINT 1904 Music Hall - Jacksonville
Friday, Sep 22, 2023
Cavalera Conspiracy, Exhumed, Incite Beacham - Orlando
Saturday, Sep 23, 2023
Boys Like Girls, State Champs, Four Year Strong House Of Blues - Orlando
Sunday, Sep 24, 2023
The Red Jumpsuit Apparatus High Dive - Gainesville
Tuesday, Sep 26, 2023
nothing, nowhere., See You Space Cowboy, Static Dress, Unitytx Orpheum - Tampa
Friday, Sep 29, 2023
CIRCLE JERKS, TSOL, Negative Approach Underbelly - Jacksonville
Shinedown, Papa Roach, Spiritbox MIDFLORIDA Credit Union Amphitheatre - Tampa
Saturday, Sep 30, 2023
NOFX Vinoy Park - St. Petersburg
Flogging Molly, The Bronx House Of Blues - Orlando
Thursday, Oct 5-7, 2023
Absolution Fest Crowbar - Tampa
Tuesday, Oct 10, 2023
Ne Obliviscaris, Beyond Creation, Persefone Orpheum - Tampa
Wednesday, Oct 11, 2023
Ne Obliviscaris, Beyond Creation, Persefone Conduit - Winter Park
Fit For a King, The Devil Wears Prada, Counterparts, Landmvrks The Ritz - Tampa
Thursday, Oct 12, 2023
Dawn of Ouroboros, Fires in the Distance, Somnent Conduit - Winter Park
Saturday, Oct 14, 2023
Beast in Black, Dance with the Dead Orpheum - Tampa
Fame on Fire, Kingdom Collapse The Social - Orlando
Sunday, Oct 15, 2023
Beast in Black, Dance with the Dead Conduit - Winter Park
Motionless In White, Knocked Loose, After the Burial, Alpha Wolf Hard Rock Live - Orlando
Tuesday, Oct 17, 2023
Atilla, Gideon, Until I Wake, Ten56 Underbelly - Jacksonville
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2023
Atilla, Gideon, Until I Wake, Ten56 Orpheum - Tampa
Friday, Oct 27-29, 2023
The Fest Gainesville
Tuesday, Nov 7, 2023
Protest the Hero, Moontooth The Abbey - Orlando
Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023
Protest the Hero, Moontooth Orpheum - Tampa
Friday, Jan 24, 2024
Kansas Florida Theatre - Jacksonville

submitted by Metal_Florida to floridarockcommunity [link] [comments]


2023.06.05 01:20 Due_Ebb_2852 Ongoing Motivation and self-sabotage

I am at a point where I have lost a significant amount of weight and am about 15 lbs from my goal.
At first I was super motivated and dedicated and not even tempted much to “cheat” or eat outside my window. I was listening to The Obesity Code and then Life in the Fasting Lane on audible and I felt very good about this journey and becoming healthier.
Now I’m feeling like the motivation and excitement I had is waning even though I’ve seen awesome results.
Ideas for getting it back?? I was thinking of re-listening to The Obesity Code and I’ve put a hold on Feast Fast Repeat from the library. I could re-watch Dr Fungs YouTube. Any other ways you keep motivated to continue? I know I feel better and look better and my health is much better. I wish I could stay excited about those things as I was a month ago lol
submitted by Due_Ebb_2852 to fasting [link] [comments]


2023.06.04 22:11 chug-a-lug-donna grammy test

Hello, and welcome to Music’s Biggest Night!
That’s right, it’s the GRAMMYs. The year is 1994 and our category is Best Alternative Music Album. We’ll be rating each of the five nominees on Indieheads, but before we get to the nominees, a quick word about rates.
Hey, quick question, what are rates?
Obviously, if you're familiar with the process, skip this. But if you're new, I'll explain so this doesn't seem like a wild block of text!
Rates are a subreddit game in which a user scores a group of songs on a scale from 1-10, with each individual also given a single 11 and a single 0 to be used exactly once per rate. They will then message their ballot to the rate host, who will tally up all the points and then reveal the final results over a weekend, eliminating songs one by one until the last track remaining wins the rate and bragging rights forever. While there's just a bit more to know, I feel this is the basics of what you'll need to understand what's going on. I do recommend this video made by our popheads brethren to get a fuller picture; while some of the info applies specifically to the way popheads do their rates, the overall format is similar.

Introduction

The GRAMMYs are awards presented by The Recording Academy of the United States to recognize outstanding achievements in the music industry. The name derives from the trophy, which is shaped like an old-fashioned gramophone. The awards celebrate a variety of categories, but we’re going to be looking at Best Alternative Music Album or, as it was called at the time, Best Alternative Music Performance. The question of what "alternative" really means can be debated forever, but the original intent of this award was to celebrate non-mainstream rock albums which were heavily played on college radio. The category first appeared in 1991, so in 1994 the award is still pretty new.
And now, let’s meet our nominees!

Belly - Star

Belly are the act here that seem discussed least frequently on Indieheads, so I’m excited to see what everyone thinks of them. By the time of starting Belly, Tanya Donelly (lead vocals and rhythm guitar) had already been in two other classic indie rock bands. She was a co-founder of Throwing Muses with her step-sister Kristin Hersch, contributing vocals and guitar for the band’s first decade, though she’d only get a handful of songs per album. Donelly would later start The Breeders with Pixies bassist and vocalist Kim Deal. The Breeders’ debut, Pod, featured Deal as the primary songwriter because existing record contracts prohibited the two from sharing primary writing credits. While they originally intended to alternate albums, Tanya had begun to form Belly by the time it was her turn to do a Breeders album. She recruited Fred Abong (bass) and brothers Tom (guitar) and Chris (drums) Gorman as they’d all known each other while going to high school in Rhode Island.
Belly co-produced most of their 1993 debut Star with Tracy Chisholm. Gil Norton, who’d previously produced Throwing Muses’ self-titled debut, produced four tracks, including singles "Gepetto," "Slow Dog," and "Feed the Tree." "Feed the Tree," one of the album’s highlights, would be the band’s highest charting hit, reaching 95th on the Billboard Hot 100 and topping the Modern Rock Chart. Star is an effective fusion of alternative rock with jangle pop, dream pop, "haunting" folk, and even some light country influences. At the 1994 GRAMMYs, Belly were also up for Best New Artist with Blind Melon, Digable Planets, and SWV, ultimately losing to R&B singer Toni Braxton. Belly released a sophomore album King in 1995 and Donelly released several solo albums before reuniting with the King lineup to release a third album in 2018. While Star may not have achieved the canonical stature of some of 1994’s other nominees, it is nevertheless a very enjoyable release from a strong songwriter who’d finally gotten the chance to make an album-length statement of her own.
Are Indieheads gonna feed the tree? Will this be an album to die for?
Tracklist:
  1. Someone to Die For
  2. Angel
  3. Dusted
  4. Every Word
  5. Gepetto
  6. Witch
  7. Slow Dog
  8. Low Red Moon
  9. Feed The Tree
  10. Full Moon, Empty Heart
  11. White Belly
  12. Untogether
  13. Star
  14. Sad Dress
  15. Stay

Nirvana - In Utero

If you were wondering where "Heart Shaped Box" was in the Guitar Hero Rate, well I’ve got a treat for you!
Kurt Cobain (vocals and guitar) and Krist Novoselic (bass) met while attending Aberdeen High School in the late 1980s. They shuffled through various names, ultimately deciding on Nirvana because Cobain wanted a name that sounded beautiful and nice instead of mean and raunchy. In their early years, they worked with several different drummers, recording 1989’s Sub Pop debut Bleach with Chad Channing on drums. Channing left the band as they worked on their follow-up. Kurt and Krist met drummer Dave Grohl days after he’d moved to Seattle following the break up of his Washington DC band Scream. The addition of Dave solidified Nirvana’s classic lineup. The trio began seeking a major label to buy them out of their Sub Pop contract as they were dissatisfied with the label’s lack of promotion and distribution of their debut. They eventually signed with DGC Records per the recommendation of Sonic Youth’s Kim Gordon. Upon signing, they began work on their major label debut, Nevermind, with producer Butch Vig. 1991’s Nevermind was an unexpected success, bringing grunge and alternative rock to the mainstream and even surpassing Michael Jackson on the Billboard albums chart.
In the aftermath of Nevermind’s success, Cobain felt he needed to reclaim his punk ethic. Wanting to depart from Butch Vig’s slick production (don’t worry, we’ll still be hearing from Vig a little later), he sought to work with Steve Albini. Albini was famous in the underground for his work as frontman for Big Black and various production work, including PJ Harvey’s Dry. He sent a copy of Dry to Cobain to give him an idea of the acoustics in his studio. Albini dismissed Nirvana as "R.E.M. with a fuzzbox" (more on R.E.M. soon!) but decided to work with them because he felt bad for them, recognizing them as "the same sort of people as all the small-fry bands I deal with." The band pushed for minimal label oversight and recorded In Utero quickly, wrapping recording sessions in as little as 13 days. The album was noisier and more abrasive than Nevermind, resulting in much dispute between the band, Albini, and the label. Cobain sought to make the kind of record he’d enjoy owning as a fan but began having second thoughts about the sound when listening to it at home. The press picked up on conflict about the album’s sound. The band denied this and DGC president David Geffen called Newsweek to explain they would release whatever Nirvana recorded. Behind the scenes, the band tried to fix the album’s sound in the mastering process, which Albini was strongly against. He’d later supply an alternate mix for the album’s 20th anniversary re-release. R.E.M producer Scott Litt was brought on to remix "Heart Shaped Box" and "All Apologies" which were intended to be the album’s singles.
In Utero was released in September of 1993 following a low-key release strategy which sent "Heart Shaped Box" as a promo-only single to various rock station formats but not Top 40. Walmart and K-Mart initially refused to stock the album due to its back cover and the title of the song "Rape Me." (A content note on that song, while it is interpreted as commentary on the invasive music press, it was intended to be a lyrically literal anti-rape song from the perspective of a victim. As this is a rate, you can score this song however you see fit, but I hope it goes without saying that everyone should please be respectful of this subject matter in their comments.) Despite In Utero’s abrasive sound and reduced mainstream promotion, the album still debuted at number one on the Billboard album charts and was well-received by critics. The music often hits harder and faster than Nevermind, containing more of the "punk" feel that Cobain was aiming for compared to the grunge of their early work and their Seattle contemporaries. Check out this MTV clip if you’d like to see how college students in 1993 received the album at the time. The band toured America shortly after In Utero came out. Their European tour that was cut short as Cobain suffered from a drug overdose. A couple weeks later, Cobain died by suicide. As with the subject matter of "Rape Me," I want to request that everyone is respectful of this in their comments, I will ask for edits (or omit comments myself) if they are inappropriate. Despite the tragic ending, Nirvana is still seen as one of American and alternative rock’s most important bands and In Utero remains highly regarded to this day.
Will our comments be all apologies? Are the results of this rate gonna be, uhhh, dumb?
Tracklist:
  1. Serve the Servants
  2. Scentless Apprentice
  3. Heart-Shaped Box
  4. Rape Me
  5. Frances Farmer Will Have Her Revenge on Seattle
  6. Dumb
  7. Very Ape
  8. Milk It
  9. Pennyroyal Tea
  10. Radio Friendly Unit Shifter
  11. Tourette’s
  12. All Apologies

R.E.M. - Automatic for the People

If there’s a band who can rival Nirvana’s stature in the American alternative rock canon, it’s gotta be R.E.M. They are often cited as one of the first "alternative" rock bands and were important for the college radio format. Formed in Athens, Georgia in 1980, Michael Stipe (vocals), Peter Buck (guitar), Mike Mills (bass), and Bill Berry (drums) released 5 albums with independent label I.R.S. Records. This run of releases showed them evolving from a jangle rock sound to a louder, more anthemic sound on their final record for the label, Document. After "The One I Love" became their first mainstream hit, the band signed to Warner Brothers, kicking off a second act that resulted in yet another 5 album run of great music.
At the start of the 90s, R.E.M. opted out of touring and became a studio band. The band recorded demos for the songs "Drive," "Try Not to Breathe," and "Nightswimming" at Prince’s Paisley Park Studios while mixing their 1991 album, Out of Time. Out of Time was a huge success, arriving as alternative rock was becoming mainstream. It spawned the massive single "Losing My Religion" and even ended up winning the GRAMMY award for Best Alternative Music Album in 1992. After concluding promotional duties in early 1991, the band returned to the studio to continue work on what would become Automatic for the People. It is the fourth of six records the band would produce with Scott Litt. The band traded off instruments in the studio, with Buck playing the mandolin famously featured on "Losing My Religion," Mills playing piano or organ, and Berry playing bass. Initial attempts to make a harder rocking follow-up did not pan out, as the band found they were writing better without drums. The material began to take on a more melancholic tone. The lush orchestration of Out of Time is rendered in a somber greyscale, with arrangements contributed by Led Zeppelin’s John Paul Jones. Lyrically, the album muses on loss and mourning, prompting rumors that balding Michael Stipe was dying of cancer or AIDs. Luckily, he was not but that is the lens through which some critics and listeners received this work. The album also finds room for political commentary, most noticeably in "Ignoreland" which pushes against Republican politics of the time, but also in opener "Drive" which calls back to the group’s work with the Rock to Vote movement, for which they added a petition on the longbox packaging of Out of Time.
Automatic for the People released on October 5, 1992 (gotta love the GRAMMYs odd eligibility window) debuting at number 2 on the Billboard 200. Unlike its predecessor, it never reached the top spot, thanks to Garth Brooks. Six of the album’s 12 tracks were released as singles including "Drive," "Everybody Hurts" which has unfortunately been diluted through years of ironic use in comedies, the cryptic, Andy Kaufman referencing "Man on the Moon," and "Nightswimming," an emotional piano ballad that has become a fan favorite. The album was critically acclaimed upon release and, while perhaps not as fun as their jangle material, this nocturnal bummer is regarded by many as one of the band’s masterpieces.
Will everybody hurt? Are R.E.M. going to get a raw deal?
Tracklist:
  1. Drive
  2. Try Not to Breathe
  3. The Sidewinder Sleeps Tonite
  4. Everybody Hurts
  5. New Orleans Instrumental No. 1
  6. Sweetness Follows
  7. Monty Got a Raw Deal
  8. Ignoreland
  9. Star Me Kitten
  10. Man on the Moon
  11. Nightswimming
  12. Find the River

The Smashing Pumpkins - Siamese Dream

The Smashing Pumpkins formed in 1988 when Billy Corgan (vocals and guitar, he prefers William Patrick Corgan now though) met James Iha (guitar) while working at a record store in Chicago, Illinois. They performed as a duo with a drum machine, eventually adding bassist D’arcy Wretzky after meeting her at a show by the Dan Reed Network. Jazz drummer Jimmy Chamberlain was recommended by a friend of Corgan’s after the trio were booked for a show under the condition that they’d play with a live drummer instead of their drum machine. With Chamberlain on board, the band’s classic lineup had been formed and their sound began to shift in a harder rock direction.
Siamese Dream, the group’s 1993 sophomore album, expands on their 1991 debut Gish in every possible way. The band switched from Virgin subsidiary Caroline Records to Virgin itself. Butch Vig, who produced Nirvana’s massive Nevermind right after finishing work on Gish, returned to produce the follow-up. Where Gish’s $20,000 budget and month of recording time was "unprecedented" for Vig, Corgan and Vig spent four months on Siamese Dream and went $250,000 over budget. This is what happens when you let Billy overdub everyone else’s guitar and bass parts (something the rest of the band wasn’t particularly happy about) to get as many as 100 guitar parts compressed into one song.
The meticulous studio process paid off, as Siamese Dream was a bigger hit than Gish, peaking at 10 on the Billboard 200. The band’s influences from metal, dreampop, and shoegaze give the album a layered and unique sound compared to the grungier alternative music of the time. Singles "Cherub Rock" and "Today" have been featured in the Guitar Hero and Rock Band videogame series. While never released as a single, "Mayonaise" has become a fan favorite and won a Rolling Stone poll for best Pumpkins song, beating out singles from Siamese Dream. Judging from some early discussion since this rate was announced, some of you seem pretty excited to rate "Mayonaise." While the double album follow-up Mellon Collie and the Infinite Sadness took the band to the height of their popularity, Siamese Dream is often regarded as their masterpiece and one of the best rock albums of the 90s.
Will we be sweet sweet to the Pumpkins? The rater in me is the rater in you, I’ll send this ballot over to you
Tracklist:
  1. Cherub Rock
  2. Quiet
  3. Today
  4. Hummer
  5. Rocket
  6. Disarm
  7. Soma
  8. Geek U.S.A.
  9. Mayonaise
  10. Spaceboy
  11. Silverfuck
  12. Sweet Sweet
  13. Luna

U2 - Zooropa

Whoa hey is it U2sday??
Formed in Dublin, Ireland in 1976, U2 (Bono on vocals, The Edge on guitar, Adam Clayton on bass, and Larry Mullen Jr. on drums) have become the top-selling Irish musical act of all-time, with an estimated 170+ million records sold. Across the 80s, U2 evolved their early post-punk sound to the anthemic rock of The Joshua Tree. While touring America for that album, the band recorded Rattle and Hum, a hybrid live/studio record (and accompanying concert film) which documented the tour and the group’s fascination with American roots music. Despite the album’s commercial success, most consider it a misguided failure. Even Bono admitted at their final show for the album’s Lovetown Tour that "we have to go away and dream it all up again."
1993’s Zooropa catches U2 at their most adventurous. 1991’s Achtung Baby and its subsequent Zoo TV tour rebranded the band for the new decade. While they continued working with Unforgettable Fire and The Joshua Tree producers Brian Eno and Daniel Lanois, they updated their sound with influences from electronic, dance, and industrial music. On stage, they dabbled in irony to counter the sincerity of their 80s output with Bono playing characters such as The Fly and Macphisto. Emboldened by the critical and commercial success of this album and tour, they began working on a promotional EP during a break between Zoo TV tour legs. Despite working quickly in the studio, this EP expanded into a full-length album, requiring the band to travel between concerts and the studio in Dublin to finish working on the album during the first month of the Zooropa leg.
Zooropa finally arrived in July of 1993 and it shows the band doubling down on their early 90s ideas. The sound of the album, built from loops of soundcheck jamming and leftover sketches from Achtung Baby, ventures even further from traditional rock instrumentation and songwriting, bolstered by production from Brian Eno, Flood (moving from an engineering to production role), and The Edge, who received production credits for the first time. The fragmented nature of the album’s production is reflected in the eclectic tracklist which bounces between the multi-movement art-rock of the title track, dancefloor fillers like "Daddy’s Gonna Pay for Your Crashed Car," and ballads like "For the First Time" and "Stay (Faraway, So Close!)" Unique vocal choices like The Edge’s spoken-word rapping on lead-single "Numb," Bono’s falsetto on "Lemon," and a Johnny Cash feature on closer "The Wanderer" help the album feel more varied than U2’s previous material. The album’s lyrics often examine Zoo TV’s concepts of "sensory overload" and technology more explicitly than Achtung Baby.
While U2 are reluctant to acknowledge Zooropa now (likely influenced by the failure of 1997’s Pop, a rushed, mixed bag of an album that stretched audiences' tolerance for 90s U2 to a Rattle and Hum-like breaking point) the album was successful when it came out. Zooropa debuted at number one in several countries and finished ninth on 1993’s Pazz and Jop poll. It would also go on to win this GRAMMY award for Best Alternative Music album, with Bono shrugging on stage, shouting out Smashing Pumpkins, and promising to "the young people of America" that they will "continue to abuse our position and fuck up the mainstream" in his acceptance speech.
Will U2 stay the champions in our rate or will they be faraway so close to the top?
Tracklist:
  1. Zooropa
  2. Babyface
  3. Numb
  4. Lemon
  5. Stay (Faraway, So Close!)
  6. Daddy’s Gonna Pay for Your Crashed Car
  7. Some Days Are Better Than Others
  8. The First Time
  9. Dirty Day
  10. The Wanderer

Bonus Rate

While our rates often have a bonus, there is no bonus for the 1994 GRAMMYs since this rate is 5 albums instead of the usual 4.
Now, it’s time for the boring, but necessary parts:

Where to listen:

Spotify
Apple Music
Tidal Music

Rules - READ ALL OF THESE BEFORE SUBMITTING YOUR SCORES

  1. Listen to each song and assign each a score between 1 and 10. decimals are fine, but please refrain from giving decimal scores that have two decimal spots: giving a 7.2 is okay, but giving a 7.25 will give me a headache. This is because I'm using a computer program to parse the votes and print everything out (more on that later).
  2. Yes, you have to listen to every song. We're all in this together. I will not accept your ballot if you have a score missing, because it will crash the program (more on that later).
  3. Your scores should NOT be considered confidential. They aren’t. Feel free to shitpost about them in the general discussion threads whenever you feel like it - users over at popheads usually just talk about their averages of the albums and what 11 and 0 they gave (which I will explain on the next bullet point!)
  4. You may give ONE song a 0 and ONE song an 11. This is ONE song TOTAL. Please reserve these for your least favorite and most favorite tracks; excessive sabotage ruins rate results and generally makes things less fun.
  5. You can change your scores at any time! Feel free to PM me at any point after submission and I'll be happy to revise them for you.
  6. I am using a computer program that the great and wonderful letsallpoo designed in order to parse these votes! While this will make things a lot more efficient and reduces errors on my part, this does mean that scores need to be sent in a very specific way. The easiest way to make sure your scores follow the necessary format is to use the pre-prepared link at the top & bottom of this post. PLEASE USE THAT. You can copy and paste it to a notepad file or something and fill in your scores there, but PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE use that format to send in your scores.
  7. Did a lot of copy and pasting here, so thank you thank you to all the raters of old, ily: roseisonlineagain; DolphLundgrensArms; R_E_S_I_G_N_E_D; stansymash; ClocktowerMaria; aerocom; themilkeyedmender; greencaptain; Crankeedoo; dirdbub; ThatParanoidPenguin; tedcruzcontrol; kappyko; FuckUpSomeCommasYeah; LazyDayLullaby; SRTViper; Whatsanillinois; NFLFreak98; freav; freeofblasphemy; RatesNorman; aPenumbra; idontreallycare4; p-u-n-k_girl; luigijon3; WaneLietoc; dream_fighter2018; darjeelingdarkroast; smuckles; PiperIBarelyKnowHer; welcome2thejam; imrlynotonreddit; kvothetyrion; thedoctordances1940; b_o_g_o; vapourlomo; and tons of people on popheads.

Formatting

Songs - This is correct:
Man on the Moon: 10
You may also and are generally encouraged to leave comments with your scores!
This is correct (single space after the score, no colon):
Man on the Moon: 10 I'm glad Michael didn't get stuck doing the Elvis voice
Any of the following formats are incorrect:
Man on the Moon 10 I'm glad Michael didn't get stuck doing the Elvis voice
Man on the Moon: 10: I'm glad Michael didn't get stuck doing the Elvis voice
Man on the Moon: (10) I'm glad Michael didn't get stuck doing the Elvis voice
Man on the Moon: I'm glad Michael didn't get stuck doing the Elvis voice 10
Man on the Moon - 10 I'm glad Michael didn't get stuck doing the Elvis voice
Man on the Moon: 10/10 I'm glad Michael didn't get stuck doing the Elvis voice
Albums - This is correct (add a colon after the album's title on your ballot if you're making a comment on the full album):
Album: Zooropa: Wow this rules, i wish they'd uploaded this album to my phone instead

Due Date: July 9

Reveal: July 14 - 16

Finally, here are the links you'll need to start rating again:

SUBMISSION LINK

A Pastebin link of the ballot can be found here
If you want a reminder of what rates are coming up soon, here is the link to the announcement post for the current cycle, and if you want to learn about all the past rates we have done, here is the rate history spreadsheet.
submitted by chug-a-lug-donna to u/chug-a-lug-donna [link] [comments]


2023.06.03 20:52 Objective_Year6718 type me by long biographical style text please?

35/f, late diagnosis as combined type adhd (though i am more inattentive than impulsive)
i am the firstborn with two siblings, to an evangelical born-again christian dad and more moderately christian mom. my dad grew more fundamental with time and when i was in high school i declared my atheism after getting into punk music and reading the communist manifesto and feeling like christianity was quite harmful in many ways. my dad responded by forcing me to go to bible study and church each week otherwise i wouldn’t get to drive my car (bought myself) for the week, which was a hefty consequence considering i had severe anxiety around riding the bus.
i loathed the small, homogenous midwest town i grew up in and was something of a loner. i was put in the academically gifted classes in middle school but felt stupid in comparison to the other kids and didn’t achieve the high grades they did because i didn’t really care and didn’t enjoy being the only freshman amongst juniors and seniors in many of my classes once high school came. my primary focus was getting out of there once i graduated and that’s exactly what i did.
right after high school i spent the summer in romania volunteering in an orphanage. though i’d always been shy (i was the kid that adults would constantly make the joke, “i wish you would stop talking already!” because i was incredibly quiet unless i knew you, then i could be accused of being a motormouth), i always felt comfortable around young children and was a natural caregiver. I particularly loved (and love) babies.
I studied photography and fine art in college and grad school because i always felt like i contained a lot inside that i needed a way to make it external and bridge my inside and outside. the work i made was always deeply personal, so i never really considered making a career out of it, except becoming a teacher but that fell to the wayside as it seemed the only thing i could make decent money at was nannying.
i’ve been a career nanny for 15 years now and am pregnant with my first child now. it feels amazing to be realizing my greatest dream, that i always somehow thought i wouldn’t be able to do (for no reason other than a strange self-imposed “i can’t get what i want most” complex)
I used to describe myself as ambitious but really i’m more of a dreamer; ultimately i care little about my profession and seek mostly a comfortable existence with plenty of time with my loved ones and spare time to explore my various curiosities and connect with nature. it took me a really long time to realize being a mom was my main ambition, and have thought of pursuing a number of career paths but mostly i like studying and going to school.
the older i get the more introverted i feel, i used to live in big cities but in my 30s have been trying to move away and into more rural areas. i tend to avoid crowded events and definitely like more intimate social events.
i am artistic, but moreso creative. i have nothing but ideas but it’s hard for me to execute most of them. i like craft type activities, such as using plants to dye fabric, pressing flowers, and making jewelry. i absolutely loved darkroom photography but it isn’t something i can afford to do anymore. the art i make typically starts from an idea and the medium comes after—i’ve worked in video, sound, photo, sculpture, installation etc.
like other adhd-er’s i have hobbies i will focus on to the extreme and then will drop by the wayside once it’s lost my interest. i spent a couple of years really digging into genealogy and doing ancestral research in order to have a spiritual connection to them. i built a family tree in the thousands and used dna to further identify relatives when paper trails went cold. i love investigative challenges such as these and have a strong left brained side that feels sometimes at odds with my right brained creative/more chaotic energy but ideally i spend time engaging with both of these equally otherwise i get quite bored.
another passion of mine is astrology. i was quite skeptical of anything “woo” after being raised in such a harmfully religious way, but around 28 i started studying on my own and my interest still has never waned. i hope to write a book about genealogical and family astrology someday as this has been a good chunk of my research. i enjoy helping people learn more about themselves or see themselves differently by reading their chart.
i absolutely tend towards people pleasing and am very agreeable unless i’m quite comfortable with a person, which is a few and far between type relationship for me. i think part of this is being very conflict avoidant and wanting to be liked and seen as less intense than i truly am. as i mentioned before, i feel a lot under the surface and i definitely struggled with my mental health as a teenager and young adult. i identified strongly with the crazy/mentally ill woman stereotype from an early age, perhaps because my aunt passed due to suicide while i was a child and i was constantly told how similar i was to her. i feel a pressure to keep things more surface level and talk about inane things that don’t interest me because it’s rare for me to find people that want to talk about the things i’m interested in. and i don’t necessarily need to discuss my interest with others also.
in a similar way, i would never describe myself as a leader. i feel quite uncomfortable in leadership roles. i typically do my best work when left alone.
there are two types i usually receive when i take online tests, but i’d rather see what input i get before staying them. (perhaps it’s pretty obvious though?)
thank you for reading this far if you’re still with me and for any input you might have!
submitted by Objective_Year6718 to MbtiTypeMe [link] [comments]


2023.06.03 14:35 darkwinter95 Reflecting on yesterday's DMT trip

I had my first real taste of DMT yesterday, took 2 fairly decent pulls of my vape I had one pull the day before but it only left me with a trippy headspace without visuals and feeling like I was on a low dose of shrooms but it still came on pretty hard, nowhere near the intensity of yesterday's trip though. I actually posted about it yesterday on DMT but was too bamboozled at the time to recall some of it.
So basically as soon as I exhaled the first hit things started "buzzing" then I took my second hit, exhaled and then the "buzzing" intensified then my vision began to take on a fish eye lens effect I could feel the universe closing in on me and my last thought was basically "oh shit here we go" I dropped the vape collapsed to my bed like a sack of potatoes closed my eyes and curled up into a ball as the experience seized me by the balls. I saw a bunch of colours and patterns and everything seemed to be flashing and moving really fast, I remember freaking out initially and I hyperfocused on my breathing thinking I was about to die, but eventually I began to submit to the experience, one of my last thoughts I remember having before going into ego death was trying to reassure myself "stay calm this will all be over in 15 minutes" while I did not see any entities (the visuals I was having were too chaotic to discern much of anything) I could definately feel the presence of entities with me and they almost seemed to be playing a good cop/bad cop routine. Some were basically tormenting me and trying to fuck with me but others were comforting me and soothing me and helping to guide me through the experience. Again as far as what I sae goes it was really just indescribable, far too chaotic to put into words but I can definately see where the "circus" vibe people refer to comes from, i've gotten that on high intensity mushroom trips too.
Eventually I opened my eyes breifly as I could feel it beginning to wear off but the room still looked really distorted so I closed them, then as the effects waned further I opened my eyes again and I was able to sit up, as I regained my speech the first words out of my mouth went something like "hoooooly SHIIIT!! jesus h fucking christ!! that was INSANE!!" I still felt very shaky and uncoordinated but as it wore off further I was finally able to stand up and make myself a cup of tea and grind up some weed.
I don't know if I broke through or not, I probably didn't but that was still one of the most intense psychedelic experiences I've ever had, especially the comeup and i'm a pretty seasoned psychedelic user.
submitted by darkwinter95 to Psychonaut [link] [comments]


2023.06.03 14:32 darkwinter95 Reflecting more on yesterdays trip

I had my first real taste of DMT yesterday, took 2 fairly decent pulls of my vape I had one pull the day before but it only left me with a trippy headspace without visuals and feeling like I was on a low dose of shrooms but it still came on pretty hard, nowhere near the intensity of yesterday's trip though. I actually posted about it yesterday but was too bamboozled at the time to recall some of it.
So basically as soon as I exhaled the first hit things started "buzzing" then I took my second hit, exhaled and then the "buzzing" intensified then my vision began to take on a fish eye lens effect I could feel the universe closing in on me and my last thought was basically "oh shit here we go" I dropped the vape collapsed to my bed like a sack of potatoes closed my eyes and curled up into a ball as the experience seized me by the balls. I saw a bunch of colours and patterns and everything seemed to be flashing and moving really fast, I remember freaking out initially and I hyperfocused on my breathing thinking I was about to die, but eventually I began to submit to the experience, one of my last thoughts I remember having before going into ego death was trying to reassure myself "stay calm this will all be over in 15 minutes" while I did not see any entities (the visuals I was having were too chaotic to discern much of anything) I could definately feel the presence of entities with me and they almost seemed to be playing a good cop/bad cop routine. Some were basically tormenting me and trying to fuck with me but others were comforting me and soothing me and helping to guide me through the experience. Again as far as what I sae goes it was really just indescribable, far too chaotic to put into words but I can definately see where the "circus" vibe people refer to comes from, i've gotten that on high intensity mushroom trips too.
Eventually I opened my eyes breifly as I could feel it beginning to wear off but the room still looked really distorted so I closed them, then as the effects waned further I opened my eyes again and I was able to sit up, as I regained my speech the first words out of my mouth went something like "hoooooly SHIIIT!! jesus h fucking christ!! that was INSANE!!" I still felt very shaky and uncoordinated but as it wore off further I was finally able to stand up and make myself a cup of tea and grind up some weed.
I don't know if I broke through or not, I probably didn't but that was still one of the most intense psychedelic experiences I've ever had, especially the comeup and i'm a pretty seasoned psychedelic user.
submitted by darkwinter95 to DMT [link] [comments]


2023.06.02 23:41 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.

Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy

Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
  • March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
  • April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.

June Better in Pre-Election Years

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The June Swoon?

Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength

Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance

May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?

A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.

Some Good Inflation News

While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas

March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]


2023.06.02 23:40 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.

Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy

Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
  • March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
  • April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.

June Better in Pre-Election Years

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The June Swoon?

Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength

Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance

May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?

A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.

Some Good Inflation News

While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas

March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]


2023.06.02 23:39 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.

Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy

Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
  • March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
  • April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.

June Better in Pre-Election Years

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The June Swoon?

Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength

Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance

May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?

A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.

Some Good Inflation News

While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas

March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023

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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
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2023.06.02 23:39 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.

Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy

Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
  • March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
  • April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.

June Better in Pre-Election Years

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The June Swoon?

Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength

Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance

May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?

A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.

Some Good Inflation News

While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas

March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
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(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to EarningsWhispers [link] [comments]


2023.06.02 23:38 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.

Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy

Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
  • March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
  • April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.

June Better in Pre-Election Years

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The June Swoon?

Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength

Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance

May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?

A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.

Some Good Inflation News

While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas

March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StocksMarket [link] [comments]


2023.06.02 23:37 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on FinancialMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.

Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy

Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
  • March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
  • April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
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Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
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All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.

June Better in Pre-Election Years

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Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
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The June Swoon?

Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
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Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
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What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
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Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength

Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
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May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance

May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
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How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?

A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
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When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
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There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
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This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
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Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
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Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
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All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.

Some Good Inflation News

While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
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Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
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Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas

March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
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Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023

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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:

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Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

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I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead FinancialMarket. :)
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